AVG v OPS v OBP+SLG

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---------- Original message ----------
From: Joe Watson
Date: Mon, Dec 7, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Subject: AVG v OPS v OBP+SLG
To: (Email sent to Gashouse League email addresses.)


It's hot stove time at my house (evidence of snowy winter, attached ... but, don't take this to mean the globe's not warming toward near-term Mann-made catastrophe with survival cannibalism ... if the Rapture doesn't get us, first).

Hold it. Back to baseball.

As threatened, I submit for your consideration a Gashouse League scoring metric, i.e., AVG vs. OPS vs. OBP plus SLG.

May I suggest we adopt OBP *and* SLG as scoring metrics?

The League used OPS in Ought Seven to general acceptance (and appreciation, I think). We reverted to Yahoo's default AVG in Ought Eight with acceptance but pushback. Your humble dictator ... I mean ... co-commissioner had panicked and thought we needed to generify our scoring because we were losing franchises. (Expect a future commissioner's office burp about league-size, before pitchers and catchers report.)

Your humble co-commissioner believes he was wrong about AVG *and* wrong about generifiying the league. (I cite the rambling August 29, 2007 discussion of OPS and move on. But, if you've been able to block that brainf*rt out ... or are new to the league ... I commend it to you.)

Why adopt *both* OBP *and* SLG instead of just adopting OPS, the mash-up of the two? Three reasons:

1. We may want to revert to Ought Seven's 12 metrics instead of using 10. We could use an extra metric. We could use an extra metric instead of Errors ... which was just squat for fantasy management purposes. Errors was like cockroaches. It didn't add anything but presence and pretty much just served to foul the place (I borrow from Darrell Royal). So, adopting *both* OBP *and* SLG gives us a meaningful additional offensive metric without fouling up the place. Why even think about an extra metric? For later discussion, I want to re-open the worm can of RP Holds. If we want to add Holds? We need a 6th metric over on offense.

2. We might learn something. Intuition (Detective Bob's the Man of Science here and he can validate) tells me there's an incremental "baseball observational" benefit from measuring the two vs. just accepting the mash-up of the two. Like what? Ichiro strikes me as a high OBP guy but not a great SLG guy. Adam Dunn may be a fine SLG guy, but squat as an OBP guy. Yet both those players are valuable and have a meaningful place in BASEBALL. (By the way, can 2013 and the End of the Selig Era come soon enough?) So, we Gashouse Leaguers may learn something about the distribution of value on a roster by paying attention to *both* the OBP *and* SLG metrics instead of taking OPS. I mean, you still value an OPS guy above a specialist OBP'er or SLG'er. But, you're not hosed if you have a specialist. I could be all wet. But, I'm not a Man of Science.

3. Relative metrics level our playing field vis-a-vis absolute metrics. Last year, Yahoo started displaying "games played" in the detail standings data. It was clear that we retirees with no social lives and nothing better to do than check lineups daily before each time zone's first pitch times ... had a clear ... and perhaps determinative advantage in the "absolute" categories ... like Runs, Ribs, Dingers and Steals. You guys with jobs and travel obligations, tough. You just can't keep up. No way. If we balance things a bit by removing an "absolute" measure and replacing with another "relative" measure, we reward quality of play a bit more and quantity of play a bit less. Your humble co-commissioner wants a level playing field.

So, I submit for your consideration: If we add a 6th pitching metric, we jettison AVG and adopt OBP *and* SLG.

Think about this and lemmehave it.

Joe

The Rajah's Long, Lonely Winter Looms

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---------- Original message ----------
From: Joe Watson
Date: Fri, Oct 2, 2009 at 8:52 AM
Subject: The Rajah's Long, Lonely Winter Looms
To: Gashouse League Group

I'm sorry. I just love that Rogers Hornsby quote, i.e.:

"People ask me what I do all winter. I'll tell you what I do all winter.
I stare out the window and think about spring."

Summer's over. The leaves have turned (up here on the Western High Plains, at least ... and even the weeds have given up the campaign against my yard). We turn now from roto baseball to ... well ... Rocktober. (The Phillies and Dodgers won more than one game against the Rockies, this season. So, there may be some actual competition to the '09 playoffs.)

Your humble co-commissioner has begun to think about the 2010 Gashouse League season. Lemme inoculate your thinking with a couple thoughts and see what takes and scabs over. Over the winter, I'll serve up a few considerations for the 2010 season ... and requisition yours, as well.

Here's some possibilities for next year:

AVG v. OPS. I was flat wrong about this. I miss OPS. Bad. It chewed my liver each time one of my guys walked or took an extra base. I thought using AVG instead of OPS reposed the learning curve a tad and widened the church door to make for a less intimidating barrier to entry for newbies. I think I was dead wrong. Let's plan for some hot stove time to consider returning to an OPS metric in lieu of AVG.

Holds. I need to see Dr. Phil. I'm conflicted about Holds. We tried Holds in Ought Eight. It gave me what the ... pardon my language ... new york times* ombudsman called "tuned-in-didness" to Set Up Men. I miss that. But, I agree with the naysayers that Saves and Holds are fluky metrics. And, turning over 1/6th of the metrics to flukiness don't feel right. Bringing back Holds has implications for roster size and balance with the offensive metrics ... which introduces the distasteful thought of going back to Errors as a metric that's meaningless in roto-management of a roster and lineup. Again, let's mull Holds for the 2010 season.

NL, Only. My Mom (that's her in the middle right box) told me not to associate with delinquents, because I might pick up bad habits. The Gashouse League is a real hangout for National Leaguers ... and I've stumbled into retirement in a National League diocese ... with the result I may have developed some latent NL tendencies. Roto ball's a rich learning environment. If we took the Gashouse League to an NL, only league ... we might get some deep appreciation of 0.240-hitting third outfielders and the fuller rosters of the teams we most root against ... i.e., those who play Traditional Baseball. (Peter told me he'd kill me if I brought up this NL, Only idea. Check the obituaries in the morning.)

OBP *and* SLG. This was not intuitive to me (Peter suggested it). Instead of dropping AVG for OPS, drop AVG and adopt *both* OBP *and* SLG. You'd do this, perhaps, if you added Holds over in the pitching metrics. This would balance out the offensive and pitching metrics without the roto-meaninglessness of Errors. And, the more I think about it, it broadens the field of valuable players and tunes us in to more of the subtlety that makes baseball, "The Perfect Game." Ichiro, for example, would be more valuable in a league using *both* OBP and SLG vis-a-vis a league using *just* OPS. Think about it.

League Size. I t-h-o-u-g-h-t we had to have at least 10 teams in the Gashouse League. We had nine, this year. I think the experience was OK. But, I *still* think we need at least 10 teams in the league .. and ideally, 12. (We can get into the effects of league size over the hot stove.) I don't like just opening up our league to the unwashed public. Let's give recruitment the old college try, again. There's a Facebook group that helps you find "good" fantasy league companions. I'll give that a try, as a last resort. Recruit your friends.

League Funding. This year, we eliminated the $125.00 risk of finishing last and paying the ensuing year's premium yahoo league entry fee. I'm still liking that thinking. We've learned that passive team owners will simply filter down to the bottom of the standings like dead plankton. (We need to have a Come to Jesus Alou Meeting with our passives and newbies about this.) I don't like being repo man and collecting from people who've abandoned the league. But, I still want to find a way to provide incentive at the bottom of the standings. Let's see how we experience the no-fee basic yahoo league, in 2010 and revisit this issue, next year.

If you're still reading, you must be a retiree with too much time on your hands.

I appreciate my Gashouse League buds.

Joe

* Re: new york times. new york times is one of the handful of proper nouns I can't bring myself to capitalize. Like: bill clinton, texas longhorns, and Huston street.